Abstract
This paper uses a simulation to forecast the impact of HIV/AIDS on South African aggregate production and GDP per capita. For this purpose the standard Cobb-Douglas production function is extended to incorporate the key macroeconomic variables affected by the pandemic. The method used in this paper is the Cuddington approach, but disaggregates the model by population group to take advantage of the increased precision that the more recent demographic projections by the Actuarial Society of South Africa affords.
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