Effect of Human Capital on Economic Growth in South Africa: an ARDL Approach

Abstract

This study tests the influence of human capital expressed by spending on education on South African GDP during the period 2021-2000, depending on the self-regression model of the distributed time gaps (ARDL). This work aimed to study the effect of Human Capital (H) on GDP per capita in South Africa during the period 2000-2021, based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The study results concluded that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between GDP and the independent variables (physical capital K, labor force L, and Human Capital H). The results revealed that there is a positive effect of Human Capital on GDP (moral for K) in the short run, and an adverse effect of Human Capital on GDP in the long run due to the interest in employing internationally qualified professionals, contributing to an increase in unemployment and indigenous workers’ health and well-being rates. These findings are consistent with the H-related literature. Likewise, from the results of the short-run test, L is the largest among the independent variables by (0.65), K by (0,086), the least of which is H with a coefficient of (0,029). This indicates that H (skilled workforce) in South Africa does not play an important role in the individual GDP in South Africa compared to the regular labor force due to its large size compared to the qualified labor. With regard to the long-run results, there is a negative impact of H on the local product due to the fact that the interest in supporting the qualified workforce coming to South Africa contributed to increasing unemployment rates and influencing the luxury of indigenous workers in South Africa. The study recommended the necessity of supporting local skills. The support must include enhancing skills for all three categories of workers (skilled, semi-skilled, and unskilled).