The Macroeconomic Consequences of Democratic Transition: Learning Processes in the Third and Fourth Waves of Democratization

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This study examines trends in macroeconomic conditions during democratic transition, focusing especially on how these trends changed between the third and fourth waves of democratization. We first develop hypotheses postulating that the macroeconomic consequences of democratic transition changed diachronically in the late 1980s and early 1990s because of learning processes. We then test these hypotheses using multiple interrupted time series analysis in a panel of democratizing countries. Our findings support the learning-process hypotheses. Like other recent studies, these findings raise doubts about the value of universalistic theories of democratization. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A25BB114 00003