Abstract
This article is based on the number of engineering officers from 1994 to 2000 in Taiwan, and adopts a 6-year moving average to work out the transition probability of engineering officers and to construct an absorbing Markov Transition Matrix to forecast the terms of seniority and annual supply in each hierarchy. In order to estimate the minimum number of vessels needed, this article also employed the quantity of demand for imported consumer goods from 1994 to 2000 in Taiwan and applied a Grey model to predict the annual quantity of demand for imported consumer goods. Furthermore, this article estimated the minimum number of demand for engineering officers according to the minimum number of vessels needed. In addition, this paper used cross-analysis to investigate the manpower supply and demand of engineering officers in Taiwan and obtained some important results, which can be valuable references for pertinent authorities.
Published Version
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