Abstract
This paper examines the effects of the lumber price, the housing starts, and the bilateral exchange rate on U.S. softwood lumber imports from Canada in a cointegration framework. To that end, the Phillips–Hansen fully-modified cointegration (FM-OLS) procedure is applied to monthly data for the period from January 1994 through June 2009. Results show that there exists the long-run equilibrium relationship between the U.S. lumber imports from Canada and the selected macroeconomic and market variables. We also find that the U.S. lumber price and housing starts are more important than the bilateral exchange rate in influencing U.S.–Canada softwood lumber trade.
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