The Long-Waves and the Evolution of Futures Practice and Theory

Abstract

Futures studies explore potential consequences of present day actions, and help in formulating desirable visions of the future, to guide action in the present. Although these aims have remained roughly the same, the practices and implicit theories supporting them have varied through time. This article looks at the evolution of futures through the framework of the long-wave theory, discussing the results of thematic interviews of futures professionals in three geographic areas: Finland, South Korea, and California. The long-wave theory sees societies changing in forty to sixty year cycles driven by technological development, around which social practices evolve. There have been five socio-technical waves since 1780s. Each wave brought about a set of policies and social models, and a shared mind-set. In the fourth wave, futures was mostly practiced with the spirit of the postwar economic expansion, techno-optimism, and linear worldview, with futures methods that reflected trust in scientific authority, and aimed at forecasting the most probable outcomes for the future. The fifth wave was defined by uncertainty, which was managed by using strategy tools like scenarios that prepared for various different short- and mid-term outcomes. For the sixth wave, futures practitioners are divided between the expertled quasi-predictive model that dominates especially in the technology forecasting work, and the systemic perspective, which questions the centrally organized process-view to futures. New methods, often developed outside the field, have in many ways inspired and shaped the intellectual space in which the evolution of both practices and theory may occur in the future.