The Long Term Impact of War: Evidence on Disability Prevalence in Vietnam

Abstract

This paper estimates the impact of exposure to US Air Force bombing during 1965-1975 on the disability status of individuals in Vietnam in 2009. Using national census data and an instrumental variable approach with the distance from the heavily bombed former North South Vietnam border as an instrument, the paper finds a positive and statistically significant impact of war time bombing exposure on district level disability rates more than thirty years after the end of the war. Impacts are highest for severe disability and among persons born before 1976. Smaller yet significant positive impacts are observed among persons born after the war due to on-going exposure to unexploded ordinance and likely other landmine and chemical weapons of war. The results are consistent with findings from other countries on the long-lasting effects of warfare on human populations.