Abstract
Evidence on the long-term influence of climatic variables on pertussis is limited. This study aims to explore the long-term quantitative relationship between weather variability and pertussis. Data on the monthly number of pertussis cases and weather parameters in Chongqing in the period of 2004–2018 were collected. Then, we used a negative binomial multivariable regression model and cointegration testing to examine the association of variations in monthly meteorological parameters and pertussis. Descriptive statistics exhibited that the pertussis incidence rose from 0.251 per 100,000 people in 2004 to 3.661 per 100,000 persons in 2018, and pertussis was a seasonal illness, peaked in spring and summer. The results from the regression model that allowed for the long-term trends, seasonality, autoregression, and delayed effects after correcting for overdispersion showed that a 1 hPa increment in the delayed one-month air pressure contributed to a 3.559% (95% CI 0.746–6.293%) reduction in the monthly number of pertussis cases; a 10 mm increment in the monthly aggregate precipitation, a 1 °C increment in the monthly average temperature, and a 1 m/s increment in the monthly average wind velocity resulted in 3.641% (95% CI 0.960–6.330%), 19.496% (95% CI 2.368–39.490%), and 3.812 (95% CI 1.243–11.690)-fold increases in the monthly number of pertussis cases, respectively. The roles of the mentioned weather parameters in the transmission of pertussis were also evidenced by a sensitivity analysis. The cointegration testing suggested a significant value among variables. Climatic factors, particularly monthly temperature, precipitation, air pressure, and wind velocity, play a role in the transmission of pertussis. This finding will be of great help in understanding the epidemic trends of pertussis in the future, and weather variability should be taken into account in the prevention and control of pertussis.
Highlights
Evidence on the long-term influence of climatic variables on pertussis is limited
There were noticeable seasonal patterns in the morbidity of pertussis, peaked in March to August per year, with the highest peak occurred in July; whereas a trough was observed in September until February of the subsequent year (Fig. S10)
Previous publication has found that young infants accounted for the large proportion of the infected people in C hongqing[12,44], this may be due to the fact that most young infants at the year of below 3 months were not vaccinated the DTwP vaccination, and the rapid decay of the antibodies to pertussis toxin (PT) and filamentous haemagglutinin (FHA) in infant sera derived from their mothers make infants susceptible to B. pertussis[49,50]
Summary
Evidence on the long-term influence of climatic variables on pertussis is limited. This study aims to explore the long-term quantitative relationship between weather variability and pertussis. Monthly temperature, precipitation, air pressure, and wind velocity, play a role in the transmission of pertussis This finding will be of great help in understanding the epidemic trends of pertussis in the future, and weather variability should be taken into account in the prevention and control of pertussis. It is necessary to conduct a study that simultaneously considered common weather parameters (e.g. temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, sunshine, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation) to synthetically elucidate the long-term quantitative association between meteorological factors and pertussis, in order to address the increasing threat posed by pertussis to public health
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