The linkage between renewable energy potential and sustainable development: Understanding solar energy variability and photovoltaic power potential in Tibet, China

Abstract

The accurate pattern of systematic assessment of regional-level solar energy resource potential including seasonal variability and annual trends is essential during renewable solar energy project development. Understanding the linkage between solar energy potential and photovoltaic (PV) development is of particular interest to developers and financers. However, a dearth of long-term, high-resolution solar radiation data makes these patterns and linkages challenging, and thus techniques to improve these characterizations are of great value. To improve knowledge of the renewable energy potential and sustainable development, we assessed high-resolution global surface solar radiation (SSR) dataset derived from remote sensing, and explicitly linked spatio-temporal pattern of solar energy potential across different timescales and PV development in Tibet using geographical statistics methods. With the framework, we provided an intuitive SSR mapping and more than 330 kWh/m2 of PV power potential was predicted in most areas of Tibet. We found spatio-temporal heterogeneity of solar energy seasonal variability: The SSR variation is less than 26% in most areas of Tibet in spring and summer, greater than 30% for autumn and winter; while the middle reaches of Yarlung Zangbo River remains at a low level. We also found PV power was not affected by SSR annual trends in most areas of Tibet during 2000–2016, ranging from −2 to 2 kWh/m2 per year. Additionally, we identified the mismatch between solar energy potential and PV development, characterized by a low average PV installed capacity with affluent solar energy potential, unstable power generation and a high light abandonment rate for PV. The main challenges facing long-term strategic development plans for solar PV was also assessed. Framework and findings herein provide a helpful guide to those responsible for making better decisions in some of the key stages of solar energy development at local and regional scale.