The Limit of Urban Land Expansion Based on Population Growth and Economic Development: A Case Study of Shandong Province in China

With the rapid development of urbanization in Henan Province, it is of great significance to study the relationship between man and land in regional cities to grasp the quality of urban development and to promote the healthy development of urbanization. In this paper, data envelopment analysis (DEA), Kernel density analysis, gravity center model and Logistic model are used to analyze the evolution and coordination of urban population growth and land expansion in 18 cities of Henan Province from 2000 to 2014, and to predict their overall development trend. The results show that: (1) the urban land expansion rate in Henan Province is faster than the population growth rate on the whole, the spatial distribution of the two increment is mainly in Zhengzhou, Luoyang, Luohe and other core cities, and Anyang, Nanyang, Nanyang, etc. (2) the center of gravity of urban population and the center of gravity of land are both located in the southeast of Zhengzhou City, and the coordination relationship between them presents the situation of Enhancement, Stability and Enhancement; The spatial coordination between urban land expansion and population growth is weak, and the land advance development is the main factor. (3) before 2003, the urban population growth and land expansion kept in sync, The forecasting results show that slowing down the expansion of urban land properly and coordinating the relationship between human and land will be the future direction of urbanization in Henan Province.

The conversion of Earth's land surface to urban uses is one of the most irreversible human impacts on the global biosphere. It drives the loss of farmland, affects local climate, fragments habitats, and threatens biodiversity. Here we present a meta-analysis of 326 studies that have used remotely sensed images to map urban land conversion. We report a worldwide observed increase in urban land area of 58,000 km2 from 1970 to 2000. India, China, and Africa have experienced the highest rates of urban land expansion, and the largest change in total urban extent has occurred in North America. Across all regions and for all three decades, urban land expansion rates are higher than or equal to urban population growth rates, suggesting that urban growth is becoming more expansive than compact. Annual growth in GDP per capita drives approximately half of the observed urban land expansion in China but only moderately affects urban expansion in India and Africa, where urban land expansion is driven more by urban population growth. In high income countries, rates of urban land expansion are slower and increasingly related to GDP growth. However, in North America, population growth contributes more to urban expansion than it does in Europe. Much of the observed variation in urban expansion was not captured by either population, GDP, or other variables in the model. This suggests that contemporary urban expansion is related to a variety of factors difficult to observe comprehensively at the global level, including international capital flows, the informal economy, land use policy, and generalized transport costs. Using the results from the global model, we develop forecasts for new urban land cover using SRES Scenarios. Our results show that by 2030, global urban land cover will increase between 430,000 km2 and 12,568,000 km2, with an estimate of 1,527,000 km2 more likely.

Land expansion and population growth are the most important factors for urban development in the rapid urbanization stage. Intensive land use is a key goal of urban sustainable development. Therefore, to promote intensive land use, local governments should take the scientific evaluation of the relationship between urban land and population as the basis and make policies cautiously. Thus, it is vital to adopt evaluation methods that are sensitive to intensive land use. However, this topic has received insufficient attention in the literature. Addressing this gap, this study (1) proposes a modified method to evaluate the relationship between land expansion and population growth, (2) compares the results of three evaluation methods, and (3) compares the relationship between evaluation results and urban construction land area per capita (UCAP) using UCAP as an indicator of intensive land use. Our findings indicate that existing evaluation methods do not adequately reflect the state and trend of intensive land use and that our modified model significantly improves the sensitivity to intensive land use. Additionally, this paper provides policy suggestions based on a quantitative evaluation of the relationship between urban land expansion and urban population growth. These conclusions provide a basis for formulating planning strategies to promote the intensive use of land in cities in the stage of rapid development.

Africa has been undergoing a rapid urbanization process, which is critical to the achievement of the 11th Sustainable Development Goal (SDG11). Using population density data from LandScan, we proposed a population density-based thresholding method to generate urban land and urban population data in Africa from 2001 to 2019, which were further applied to detect the spatiotemporal characteristics of Africa’s urbanization. The results showed that urban land and urban population have both grown rapidly in Africa, which increased by about 5.92% and 4.91%, respectively. The top three countries with the most intense urbanization process in Africa are Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Ethiopia. The coupling relationship index of urban land expansion and population growth was 0.76 in Africa during 2001–2019. Meanwhile, the total proportion of uncoordinated development types at the provincial level was getting higher, which indicated an uncoordinated relationship between urban land expansion and population growth in Africa. Cropland, grassland, rural land, and forests were the most land-use types occupied by urban expansion. The proportion of cropland, grassland, and forests occupied was getting higher and higher from 2001 to 2019. The extensive urban land use may have an impact on the environmental and economic benefits brought by urbanization, which needs further research.

More profound knowledge about urban land use and expansion is needed to better understand the growth and sustainability of Chinese cities. This special issue is dedicated to addressing land use and environmental issues arising from the urbanization process, and aims to identify and model the mechanisms of land use and environmental changes. It draws from papers that were presented in the sessions titled ‘‘Urbanization, Land Use, and Regional Development in China I, II, III’’ at the Annual Meeting of the Association of American Geographers in New York, February 24–28, 2012. In addition, we have also collected papers presented at the ‘‘International Conference on Urbanization and Development in China’’ held at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City, August 26–28, 2011, and through an open call for papers. Articles published in this special issue have all successfully gone through a very selective and rigorous anonymous peer-review process in order to secure a fairly high standard and a good balance between the different topics, debates, and study regions. This special issue has thus contributed to the broadening of the geographical scope and scale of research. This special issue is situated in the broad trends of academic enquiry on modeling urban growth and land expansion in China. Specifically, this research furthers the study of local variations on urban growth patterns with recently developed geographic information science (GIS) spatial analysis techniques such as geographically weighted logistic regression, and interprets urban growth patterns through the analysis of institutional change and on-theground field experiences. This special issue has also further attempted to incorporate socio-economic variables and expand the coastal cities-based research to interior cities. While the focus of this special issue is urban land expansion, it also explores a wide range of associated topics, including the characteristics of environmental problems and how this is related to China’s urban transition. This issue is a collection of 10 papers selected out of many candidate ones from the two conferences and open call for papers. Due to quality control and space limitation, some of the submitted manuscripts had to be rejected. We thank all those who submitted their abstracts and papers. We greatly appreciate the prompt action from both authors and reviewers, which allowed the timely publication of this special issue. Finally, our thanks also go to Dr. George Christakos, SERRA’s Editor-in-Chief, who helps us achieve the realization of this special issue.

Land management institution as a key confinement of urbanization in Baotou, China⿿Application of proposed endogenous urbanization model

Urbanization has become one of the hot issues of global sustainable development, and is mainly characterized by urban population growth and construction land expansion. However, the inharmonious development of urban expansion and population migration has brought serious challenges to urban planning and management. China is the largest developing country in the world, and the urbanization process has accelerated over the past decades. In this paper, decoupling analysis was used to demonstrate the spatio–temporal relationship between urban expansion and population growth in 321 prefecture–level cities in China, providing a reference basis for sustainable development. The results showed that China’s population, total GDP, and construction land area increased from 1990 to 2018. The rate of construction land expansion was larger in the eastern coastal and western regions than in the northeastern and central regions, but the population growth rate was not significantly different among these regions. According to the decoupling analysis, the relationships of population–GDP, construction land–GDP, and population–construction land were mainly weak decoupling, indicating that both the population growth and the construction land expansion lagged behind the economic development, and the population growth lagged behind construction land expansion. In addition, the results were analyzed based on China’s four economic regions. Population and construction land area changes in the northeastern provinces experienced a shift from weak decoupling to expansive negative decoupling, then presented a strong decoupling. The decoupling state of population–construction land in the west region was relatively stable. The relationship between population and construction land in the central regions was mainly weak decoupling, and some cities developed into strong decoupling. The relationship between population and construction land in the east region experienced a shift from strong decoupling to weak decoupling, then demonstrated expansive negative decoupling, mainly manifested in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations. Therefore, the northeast region should take measures to promote regional population growth while reasonably controlling the expansion of construction land, the west region should focus on ecological protection and moderately attract population, the central region should control their population development and reasonably allocate land, and the east region should pay attention to and solve the citizenship problem of migrant workers in second–tier and third–tier cities when promoting new urbanization.

As global urbanization advances, the expansion of urban land has subjected cities to increasingly frequent and extensive external disturbances, often revealing limitations in disaster prevention and mitigation capacities, particularly in regions characterized by high urbanization, environmental degradation, and recurrent natural disasters. This study investigates the association between urban land expansion and urban resilience, developing a targeted analytical framework to assess their coupling and coordination. Leveraging remote sensing data on land use and socio-economic development indicators, we constructed a comprehensive evaluation index encompassing social, economic, ecological, and infrastructural dimensions. Examining three principal urban agglomerations in China’s Yangtze River Basin, we analyzed the spatial-temporal dynamics and rates of change in urban land area and resilience levels from 2000 to 2020. A coupling coordination model was applied to assess the alignment between the rate of urban land expansion and resilience improvement, ultimately aiming to derive actionable policy recommendations. The results demonstrate that: (1) both the intensity and rate of urban land expansion across urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Basin have declined, indicating a shift in urbanization focus from “land expansion” to “quality enhancement,” with a slowdown in the conversion of agricultural to urban land. (2) Urban land expansion exhibits weak directionality, with land expansion occurring uniformly within the region. (3) On the whole, resilience levels in the Yangtze River Basin’s urban agglomerations remain moderate or lower, although showing gradual improvement. (4) The coordination between urban land area and urban resilience across the basin is limited, with a declining alignment between urban land expansion and resilience enhancement rates, signaling an emerging imbalance. By assessing the coordination between urban land expansion and resilience, this study seeks to inform policy development on urban land management and resilience enhancement within the Yangtze River Basin’s urban agglomerations.

This paper analyzed the spatial patterns of urban population changes and urban land expansion. Studies show that population concentrated into Adjacent Suburb Districts from Central City Districts and Remote Suburb Districts and Counties are the main characteristic of urban population changes of Beijing since 1982. Urban land expansion mainly took place in the central city and the surrounding areas. Starting at the central city, expanding along the main traffic lines and outspreading from a few hot spots are the main characteristics of urban land expansion in 1990s. Along with the fast expansion of urban and rural construction land, cropland and forestland area reduced notably and mainly converted into urban and rural construction land. It is obviously that urban population gathering to Adjacent Suburb Districts constantly caused the sprawling expansion of urban land and the sprawling of central city caused a lot of urban problems.

Promotion incentives for local officials and the expansion of urban construction land in China: Using the Yangtze River Delta as a case study

Embedding ecological sensitivity analysis and new satellite town construction in an agent-based model to simulate urban expansion in the beijing metropolitan region, China

Empirical studies of urban expansion have increased rapidly in recent decades worldwide. Previous studies mainly focused on cities in China, the United States or African countries, with Brazilian cities receiving less attention. Moreover, such studies are rare in purpose-built cities. Taking the urban expansion from scratch (1960) to urban agglomeration (2015) in the Federal District of Brazil (FDB) as an example, this study aims to quantify the magnitude, patterns, modes, types and efficiency of urban land expansion and attempts to reveal some implications within sustainable urban expansion thinking. Annual expansion, landscape metrics, local Moran’s I index, area weighted mean expansion index, and land-use efficiency were computed. The suitability of diffusion–coalescence theory and the impact of population growth and urban development policies on urban expansion were discussed. Urban land continuously expanded and became more fragmented during 1960–2015, which mainly occurred in SSW and WSW directions. Urban land evolved in a polycentric way. Edge expansion was identified as the stable contributor, and the importance of infilling and spontaneous growth alternated. Urban expansion in this region supported the diffusion–coalescence theory. Population growth promoted urban expansion, and the creation of peripheral urban nuclei and their development were associated with the urban expansion and the changes in urban land structure. This study adds new empirical evidence of urban expansion to Brazil urbanization, and compact urbanization, population control, and efficient urban land use should be considered in the future.

Will the construction of high-speed rail accelerate urban land expansion? Evidences from Chinese cities

Land expansion of mountain cities in China is not systematically studied yet. This study identified 55 major mountain cities at and above prefecture level, and analyzed the land expansion characteristics and driving forces, based on visually interpreted data from TM images in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015. From 1990 to 2015, total built-up land area of the mountain cities increased by 3.87 times, 5.56% per year. The urban land growth was apparently accelerated after 2000, from 4.35% per year during 1990–2000 increased to 6.47% during 2000–2010 and 6.2% during 2010–2015. Compared to the urban population growth, the urban land expansion rate was 44% higher. As a result, the urban land area per capita increased, but it was still within the government control target, and also was much lower than the average of all cities in China. Urban development policy, changes to administrative divisions, GDP and population growth, and road construction were identified as the major driving forces of land expansion. Terrain conditions were not found a relevance to the urban land expansion rate during 1990–2015, but had a significant impact on the layout and shape, and also probably on the urban land efficiency.

Based on the land-use data in 1990 and 2000, determined by interpreting Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery, this paper defines the extent of urban construction land, and extracts patches of urban construction land of 145 cities with the largest areas in 1990 and arable land patches around these cities. With these data, this paper analyzes the characteristics of ur- ban construction land expansion and the consequent arable land loss in East, Middle and West China, and further identifies the social, economic and spatial factors of the urban land use changes, using GIS (Geographical Information System) and multivariate regression approaches. The results show that total urban land of the 145 cities expanded by 39.8%, with about 70% of the new urban land converted from arable land in the 1990s. The urban land expansion varied among the three regions, with a value of 43.0% in the East, 33.1% in the West (33.1%) and 17.8% in the Middle. Moreover, mean urban construction land per capita increased by10.7% in the East, but it decreased by 7.7% in the Middle, 1.4% in the West. Statistical analysis indicated that total wages of staff and workers could best explain the differences of urban land expansion.