Abstract
With the rapid development of urbanization in Henan Province, it is of great significance to study the relationship between man and land in regional cities to grasp the quality of urban development and to promote the healthy development of urbanization. In this paper, data envelopment analysis (DEA), Kernel density analysis, gravity center model and Logistic model are used to analyze the evolution and coordination of urban population growth and land expansion in 18 cities of Henan Province from 2000 to 2014, and to predict their overall development trend. The results show that: (1) the urban land expansion rate in Henan Province is faster than the population growth rate on the whole, the spatial distribution of the two increment is mainly in Zhengzhou, Luoyang, Luohe and other core cities, and Anyang, Nanyang, Nanyang, etc. (2) the center of gravity of urban population and the center of gravity of land are both located in the southeast of Zhengzhou City, and the coordination relationship between them presents the situation of Enhancement, Stability and Enhancement; The spatial coordination between urban land expansion and population growth is weak, and the land advance development is the main factor. (3) before 2003, the urban population growth and land expansion kept in sync, The forecasting results show that slowing down the expansion of urban land properly and coordinating the relationship between human and land will be the future direction of urbanization in Henan Province.
Highlights
Since the reform and opening up, China’s economy has been growing rapidly, population urbanization and land urbanization process become accelerated significantly, and the speed and scale of urbanization are unprecedented [1] (Chan and Yao, 1999)
Combined with Kernel density analysis and the center of gravity model, we revealed the population growth, land expansion, spatial change and coordination relationship of 18 cities in Henan Province in 2000-2014, and predicted the urban population and built-up area using Logistic model, to provide certain reference for understanding the spatial and temporal evolution process and future development trend of the relationship between urban population and land area, and properly regulating and control the population-land relationship
The urban land expansion was faster than the population growth rate, but the distribution of urban land density was basically consistent with the distribution of population density, indicating that there is a high correlation between the urban population growth and land expansion
Summary
Since the reform and opening up, China’s economy has been growing rapidly, population urbanization and land urbanization process become accelerated significantly, and the speed and scale of urbanization are unprecedented [1] (Chan and Yao, 1999). Scholars Chen (2014), Fu (2015), and Wang (2016) made empirical studies on the allometric relationship between urban population growth and urban land use [8,9,10]; Yang (2013), and Zhou (2016) improved the elasticity coefficient model for urban land expansion and added the per capita urban land constraint parameter [7,11], to measure the coordination between urban land expansion and population growth. According to their studies, the urban land expansion speed was higher than the population growth rate in most cities, and their development was not coordinated. Combined with Kernel density analysis and the center of gravity model, we revealed the population growth, land expansion, spatial change and coordination relationship of 18 cities in Henan Province in 2000-2014, and predicted the urban population and built-up area using Logistic model, to provide certain reference for understanding the spatial and temporal evolution process and future development trend of the relationship between urban population and land area, and properly regulating and control the population-land relationship
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