The jaguar's patches: Viability of jaguar populations in fragmented landscapes

Abstract

Habitat loss and fragmentation have serious consequences for long-term population persistence, thus we investigated the effects of these processes on jaguars (Panthera onca) across the species’ distribution range. We employed theoretical simulations of population dynamics, making use of real and hypothetical landscapes to understand how landscape patterning affects the long-term persistence of species, and investigated the isolated and synergistic effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. Jaguar persistence probability was related both to the amount and pattern of landscape subdivision, but with a strong tolerance for habitat loss because the amount of habitat could be between 230 and 5841km2. In contrast, the persistence probability of smaller jaguar populations decreased dramatically in fragmented landscapes, indicating that fragmentation is a greater threat to jaguar long-term viability than habitat loss. Only two of the 28 populations included in our study were deemed viable in the long-term. Given the increase in habitat fragmentation and the current threat status of the jaguar, we discuss the best strategies for their conservation.