The Iranian Nuclear Threat and the Israeli Options

Abstract

As a result of developments including the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, Muammar Al-Qaddafi's decision to cease WMD programs, and the weakening of the Syrian military, only one potential strategic threat against Israel remains: the Iranian nuclear program. Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons is likely to transform the Middle East's strategic balance, force changes in Israel's national security planning in general and its nuclear policy in particular. This article analyses the options open to Israel in response to a nuclear Iran, and the advantages and disadvantages of each. Evaluation of the options available to Israel reveals seven alternatives. In the near future, Israeli decision makers will have to decide whether to adopt one or a mix of options ranging from preemptive attack to unconcealed nuclear deterrence. After analysing each of these options, the conclusion is that Israel probably will move to unconcealed nuclear deterrence in the event of Iran completing the development and the acquisition of nuclear weapons.