Abstract
In the absence of new government policies or accelerated deployment of new technology, world primary energy demand is set to rise by 60 per cent from now till 2030. Some 85 per cent of this increase will be in the form of carbon-emitting fossil fuels: coal, oil, and natural gas. Two-thirds of the new demand will come from developing countries, especially China and India. The world will need to invest $16 trillion to maintain and expand energy supply to ensure this demand is met. If this investment is not forthcoming, the world economy may falter and someone, somewhere, will go without the energy he (or, more likely, she) needs. This article outlines the methodology that underpins these long-term energy-market projections and analyses the key obstacles to mobilizing capital on the required scale. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.
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