The interim period (2006-16): a decade of CT fatigue and path dependence

Abstract

This chapter examines the vacuum between two critical junctures and exhibits the constricting power of systemic structures during periods of path dependence. It begins with an overview of the uneventful interim period of EU CT development following the Madrid-London juncture (2006-2013). Described as a time of “CT fatigue”, it is a clear demonstration of the difficulties in advancing counter-terrorism in the absence of a palpable terrorist threat. To enhance the understanding of path dependence, this chapter also examines the timeframe between the ISIL threat rising and becoming “real” to policy actors (2014-2016), and the beginning of the next critical juncture, which unlocked common action. It demonstrates that the organisation of the Paris and Brussels attacks involved several EU MS, who failed to cooperate adequately, implying the functional necessity of cooperation on EU CT. Path dependence manifested in the underestimation of the Foreign Terrorist Fighter (FTF) phenomenon and home-grown radicalisation, leading to insufficient police and intelligence information-sharing and fragmentation of data.