Disasters and ‘conditions of possibility’: rethinking causation through an analysis of earthquakes in Nepal

Abstract

What causes a disaster's aftermath? Scholars have increasingly turned to historical approaches that link outcomes to pre-disaster sociopolitical dynamics. Disasters lead to 'critical junctures' that 'trigger' events that unfold in the wake of the initial phenomenon. This paper argues that the 'critical junctures' paradigm shares limitations with 'path dependency' theory from which it is derived, namely a tendency towards historicism-a functionalist teleology better able to explain continuity than change. As an alternative, this analysis draws on Michel Foucault's understanding of 'conditions of possibility' as a way of rethinking agency/causation, moving away from individual subjects, events, or even historical conditions towards, instead, the new, radically destabilised 'epistemological field' emerging in the disaster's aftermath. This paper examines a series of devastating earthquakes in Nepal to consider how post-disaster 'epistemological fields' present new 'conditions of possibility' within which new ideas, actions, and outcomes become thinkable and possible in ways that pre-disaster historical conditions could not have predicted.