The Interdependence of Financial Markets in Turbulent Periods: A Comparative Analysis of the China–US Cases

Abstract

ABSTRACT: There has been a growing hypothesis linking the recent widespread declines in financial markets to the outbreaks of the COVID-19 pandemic. What is, however, unclear is whether the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the dynamics of the financial markets is as severe as those associated with traditional financial crises. Using the cases of the USA and China to represent developed and emerging economies, we examine the returns and volatility dynamics of financial market interdependence amid economic and financial crisis periods of divergent origins. Following careful consideration of relevant tests and model selection criteria, we find the VARMA-CCC-GARCH model to be the best approach for modelling financial market returns and volatility spillovers during a crisis. Employing daily financial market returns, we partitioned the study period into two sub-periods: the Great Recession (GFC) and the Great Lockdown (COVID-19), to arrive at the following empirical findings: First, we find that regardless of the type of crisis—the GFC or COVID-19—unanticipated events in the financial markets in the current period fuel high volatility in the market in the preceding period. Second, while financial markets in developed economies were by far the most affected by the 2008/2009 GFC, the great lockdown associated with COVID-19 appears to have left a permanent shock on both developed and emerging economies' financial markets. It then follows that the extent to which an economy is endowed with the ability to fend off external risks may be sensitive to the origin and nature of the crisis. In this light, it is necessary for policymakers to acknowledge that while some of the instruments used to mitigate the impact of external shocks on financial markets during the GFC may still be applicable during COVID-19 in the case of developed economies, the same appears to not be entirely true in the case of emerging financial markets during COVID-19. On the whole, financial experts and academics may want to be wary of the fact that the past realizations of both returns and volatilities matter for enhancing the forecastability of the future value of financial instruments during a crisis period.