Return and Volatility Spillovers in Hong Kong Financial Markets

Abstract

This paper studies the return and volatility spillovers between the stock market, the Exchange Fund Notes market and the Hong Kong dollar forward exchange market. Based on a bivariate GARCH model that specifies exogenous influences in the conditional mean and variance equations, this study examines the source and magnitude of the return and volatility spillover between financial markets. The estimation results suggest that while the pattern of return spillover is not clear, there is some evidence of volatility transmissions between selected financial markets in Hong Kong. In terms of the economic impact, however, most of these spillovers are minimal. When financial markets are turbulent, the return spillover from the forward exchange market to the stock market and the volatility transmission from the forward exchange market to the Exchange Fund Notes market can be substantial. As such, close monitoring of the fluctuations in the forward exchange market is warranted.