The inherent disadvantage of the presidential party in midterm congressional elections

Abstract

The almost inevitable midterm election loss suffered by the president's congressional party still lacks a complete explanation. It is argued here that the policy positions of the president help shape voters' perceptions of the positions of congressional candidates. Because the president implements policies before the midterm campaign begins, and because he has goals apart from winning seats in Congress, his party's candidates are at a disadvantage, relative to their opponents, in communicating the most favorable positions possible to their voters. This model of the midterm campaign not only explains midterm losses, but also accounts for rare failures of this phenomenon, as occurred in 1934.