Abstract
Lava flows can cause substantial and immediate damage to the built environment and affect the economy and society over days through to decades. Lava flow modelling can be undertaken to help stakeholders prepare for and respond to lava flow crises. Traditionally, lava flow modelling is conducted on a digital elevation model, but this type of representation of the surface may not be appropriate for all settings. Indeed, we suggest that in urban areas a digital surface model may more accurately capture all of the obstacles a lava flow would encounter. We use three effusive eruption scenarios in the well-studied Auckland Volcanic Field (New Zealand) to demonstrate the difference between modelling on an elevation model versus on a surface model. The influence of surficial features on lava flow modelling results is quantified using a modified Jaccard coefficient. For the scenario in the most urbanised environment, the Jaccard coefficient is 40%, indicating less than half of the footprints overlap, while for the scenario in the least urbanised environment, the Jaccard coefficient is 90%, indicating substantial overlap. We find that manmade surficial features can influence the hazard posed by lava flows and that a digital surface model may be more applicable in highly modified environments.
Highlights
Recent effusive volcanic eruptions such as the 2018 Kīlauea eruption in Hawaii, USA, have reminded the global community how disruptive lava flows can be
(2020) 9:6 lava flow modelling (e.g. the DOWNFLOW modelling undertaken by Favalli et al (2006, 2009a) and Chirico et al (2009) in Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo), volunteer and professional trainings (e.g. the electricity utility on Hawai’i Island creating trainings about how to strengthen their networks to withstand the high temperatures of lava flows (Tsang et al 2019)), and exercises (e.g. Exercise Ruamoko, a New Zealand all-of-nation desktop exercise focused on unrest in the Auckland Volcanic Field (Brunsdon and Park 2009; Lindsay et al 2010))
To analyse the influence of the built environment on lava flow modelling, we quantitatively model the lava flow hazard for three of the Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) Scenarios (Mt Eden, Birkenhead, and Ōtāhuhu; Table 1) on both a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and a digital surface model (DSM)
Summary
Recent effusive volcanic eruptions such as the 2018 Kīlauea eruption in Hawaii, USA, have reminded the global community how disruptive lava flows can be. Tsang et al Journal of Applied Volcanology (2020) 9:6 lava flow modelling (e.g. the DOWNFLOW modelling undertaken by Favalli et al (2006, 2009a) and Chirico et al (2009) in Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo), volunteer and professional trainings (e.g. the electricity utility on Hawai’i Island creating trainings about how to strengthen their networks to withstand the high temperatures of lava flows (Tsang et al 2019)), and exercises (e.g. Exercise Ruamoko, a New Zealand all-of-nation desktop exercise focused on unrest in the Auckland Volcanic Field (Brunsdon and Park 2009; Lindsay et al 2010)). All these activities rely on understanding the potential hazard(s), in this case when and where lava flows can occur
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