The influence of extreme weather conditions on the magnitude and spatial distribution of crime in Tshwane (2001–2006)

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis article examines the influence of extreme weather conditions on the magnitude and spatial distribution of violent, sexual and property crime in Tshwane, South Africa from 2001 to 2006. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is initially used to identify whether there are significant differences in the mean amount of crimes (violent, sexual and property) committed on days stratified by temperature and rainfall extremes. Next, a spatial point pattern test is used to determine the spatial similarity of violent, sexual and property crime on temperature and rainfall days classified as low, random, and high. Results indicate a strong association between temperature and criminal activity, and a less significant association between rainfall and crime. The spatial distributions of all types of crime are found to differ significantly depending on the type of weather extreme observed. The results of this study has the potential to assist law enforcement agencies to better understand how weather affects crime patterns in urban areas in South Africa and develop and implement appropriate crime prevention measures.