Abstract
Mastering the spatial and temporal differences of ENSO (EI Niño-Southern Oscillation) and MJO (Madden–Julian Oscillation) and their influence on drought is very important for accurately monitoring and forecasting drought. In this study, spatiotemporal characteristics and variability of the impact of ENSO and MJO on drought were analyzed from the perspectives of meteorological drought and agricultural drought through temporal and spatial correlation analyses of China’s 48 eco-geographical regions. The results show a strong correlation between drought and ENSO and MJO in general. The spatial correlation coefficients are different, and the response of extreme events varies in different regions. The influence of ENSO and MJO on agricultural drought is higher than that on meteorological drought. ENSO and MJO have a considerable influence on agricultural drought in regions such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Xinjiang, with the highest correlation coefficient of 0.72. A significant influence of ENSO and MJO on meteorological drought was found in the Jiangnan region with the highest correlation coefficient of 0.40. In addition, agricultural drought shows a significant time lag in response to ENSO events. When the lag time is six months, the time series presents the highest correlation coefficient with the mean value of the correlation coefficient reaching 0.38 and the maximum value reaching 0.75. This research is of great significance for understanding the spatiotemporal correlation between climate patterns and drought on a large regional scale and it provides further insights into the teleconnection mechanisms of drought.
Highlights
Drought ranks first among natural disasters in terms of frequency, duration, coverage and economic losses [1]
The results indicate that ENSO correlates with drought events in arid or humid areas
We analyzed the influences of ENSO and MJO on drought in different regions of China by assessing the spatial and temporal distributions of the correlation coefficients between ENSO and MJO indices and drought indices
Summary
Drought ranks first among natural disasters in terms of frequency, duration, coverage and economic losses [1]. Under the background of global climate change, relevant studies have predicted that extreme disasters will occur frequently in the future [2,3]. As a frequent extreme disaster on land, drought severely affects the ecological environment, agricultural production, socioeconomic status and other aspects [4,5,6,7]. ENSO (EI Niño-Southern Oscillation) and MJO (Madden–Julian Oscillation) and drought, but the characteristics and spatiotemporal differences of the correlation have not been systematically determined. ENSO and MJO are typical oscillations affecting climate change. ENSO events increase the possibility of global extreme drought events [9], and it can change the frequency and intensity of drought [10].
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