The Influence of Boundary Layer Processes on the Diurnal Variation of the Climatological Near-Surface Wind Speed Probability Distribution over Land*

Abstract

Abstract Knowledge of the diurnally varying land surface wind speed probability distribution is essential for surface flux estimation and wind power management. Global observations indicate that the surface wind speed probability density function (PDF) is characterized by a Weibull-like PDF during the day and a nighttime PDF with considerably greater skewness. Consideration of long-term tower observations at Cabauw, the Netherlands, indicates that this nighttime skewness is a shallow feature connected to the formation of a stably stratified nocturnal boundary layer. The observed diurnally varying vertical structure of the leading three climatological moments of near-surface wind speed (mean, standard deviation, and skewness) and the wind power density at the Cabauw site can be successfully simulated using the single-column version of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) fourth-generation atmospheric general circulation model (CanAM4) with a new semiempirical diagnostic turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) scheme representing downgradient turbulent transfer processes for cloud-free conditions. This model also includes a simple stochastic representation of intermittent turbulence at the boundary layer inversion. It is found that the mean and the standard deviation of wind speed are most influenced by large-scale “weather” variability, while the shape of the PDF is influenced by the intermittent mixing process. This effect is quantitatively dependent on the asymptotic flux Richardson number, which determines the Prandtl number in stable flows. High vertical resolution near the land surface is also necessary for realistic simulation of the observed fine vertical structure of wind speed distribution.