The influence of biophysical characteristics on elephant space use in an African savanna

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Understanding the influence of biophysical variables on spatial distribution and seasonal locations of elephants is valuable inter alia in understanding their movement patterns, and the carrying capacity to optimise the conservation of their habitats. Furthermore, understanding elephant distribution in time and space is beneficial for predicting locations for tourist viewing and determining potential areas of human–wildlife conflicts. In this study, we examined the environmental drivers of seasonal variations in elephant ranges and movement using telemetry data. Using the elephant tracking data and biophysical characteristics, the Adaptive-Local Convex Hull (a-LoCoH) and the Maximum Entropy Modelling (MaxEnt) algorithm were adopted to determine their potential locations and distribution in a protected area. The jackknife approach was used to assess the environmental factors influencing seasonal elephant movements based on collar data from ten individual elephants tracked between December 2015 and April 2018. The performance of the elephant distribution models for the two seasons was assessed using the area under the curve from the receiver operating characteristic based on a 30% test holdout data. Results showed that the core a-LoCoH home of elephants was larger in the dry than wet season (Wilcoxon signed-rank test; W = 3, Z = 2.4973, p < 0.012). However, no noticeable differences were observed (Wilcoxon signed-rank test; W = 10, Z = 1.7838, p < 0.07) between the dry and wet season for the total (90%) a-LoCoH ranges. The MaxEnt modelling results showed that distance to the artificial water holes was the most influential variable in predicting the potential elephant spatial distribution in both wet and dry seasons, while the normalised difference vegetation index, a proxy for forage availability, was more influential in the dry season in predicting elephant distribution. The study concludes that seasonal elephant space use is mostly influenced by water availability in both seasons, while forage availability and variability influence elephant distribution more strongly in the dry than wet season. The study provides valuable insight into the biophysical characteristics of elephant home ranges. This is useful for the sustainable management of elephants and their habitats.