The Influence of Ambient Weather Conditions on Stated Preferences for Ecosystem Services Management

Abstract

One of the assumptions in stated preference studies is the stability of respondents’ preferences. This assumption might be violated in situations of context dependence, i.e., when the contingent situation influences respondents’ choices. Ambient weather conditions (AWCs) are one element of the context that may influence stated preferences. The literature suggests that AWCs affect people’s emotions, behaviors, and decision-making processes; however, the potential AWCs impact in environmental preference studies has not yet been investigated. This aspect is of high importance because context-dependent choices return biased willingness to pay estimates and affect the subsequent welfare analysis that informs public policy. To shed light on this important aspect of non-market valuation studies, we explore the effect of AWCs on preferences elicited with a Discrete Choice Experiment for ecosystem services management of a Nature Park. Results of a generalized mixed logit model evidenced a significant effect of AWCs on respondents’ choices, with good weather conditions leading to higher preferences and willingness to pay for ecosystem services management. This result, which is consistent with previous psychological studies, raises the issue of sampling design and reveals the importance of a sensitivity analysis of WTP. As this issue is still unexplored in stated preference studies, we also encourage undertaking similar studies to add a priori knowledge for more accurate ex-post calibration of WTP estimates.