The influence of air temperature on incidence of the Russian Federation population during the second wave of the pandemic COVID-19

Abstract

The pandemic COVID-19 continues to take dozens of human lives and destabilize the economy on the planet. In this regard study of the patterns of external conditions influence on incidence dynamics will stay relevant for a long time. The existing views about the influence of atmospheric air temperature are controversial, owing to disparities in geological and climatic conditions for its formation. The data about incidence among population in 22 regions of the Russian Federation during the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic have been collected. There are conducted statistical research on the nature and degree of influence of air temperature on incidence of Russian population due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Statistical research of dynamics of ambient air temperature influence on human incidence depending on the latitude were conducted. At low negative temperatures (< –9.84 °C), an increase in air temperature leads, in most cases, to an increase in theincidence of COVID-19. At ambient air temperatures in the range from –9.84 to +25…+ 30° C, an increase in air temperature is most often accompanied by a decrease in the incidence of COVID-19, which is associated with a decrease in the infectious activity of SARS-CoV-2. The authors consider it necessary to conduct laboratory studies of the effect of negative temperatures on the survival and infectious activity of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Russia, which will make it possible to predict the most dangerous infectious periods and determine methods to reduce the negative consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Research results lead to a better understanding of physical meaning of air temperature influence on COVID-19 incidence and give an opportunity to predict the periods of the most dangerous infection conditions.