The influence of air temperature diversity in Central Europe on the occurrence of very strong and extreme cold stress in Poland in winter months

Małgorzata Owczarek

doi:10.7163/gpol.0204

Abstract

The aim of this research was to illustrate the relationship between the occurrence of very strong and extreme cold stress among human beings under the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) across Poland and largescale near-surface air temperature over the central part of Europe. The statistical downscaling procedure of canonical correlation analysis (CCA) with respect to the period between 1971 and 2000 was applied to extract the main modes of large-scale factors and their local responses. The greatest frequency of occurrence of the discussed cold stress exceeded 35% in January. Most of the variance (39-44%) of the local field in each winter month is explained by the first coupled canonical maps. T he main patterns of large-scale field show negative anomalies of monthly mean air temperature in central Europe from -1°C up to -3°C. It can indicate an increase in frequency of the occurrence of analysed cold stress categories throughout the entire area of Poland, by 2% to even over 10%, depending on the region. The best quality model was obtained in eastern Poland, especially in the north-east and south-west of Poland.

Highlights

The meteorological conditions and the climate features incessantly affect the human body and human well-being
The results obtained in the present study show that the variability of near-surface air temperature over central Europe influences the frequency of occurrence of very strong and extreme cold stress among humans determined by the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)
The sign and the values of anomalies in the frequency of occurrence of the analysed variable in Poland clearly refer to the spatial variability of the anomaly in the monthly mean near-surface air temperature throughout central Europe

Summary

Introduction

The meteorological conditions and the climate features incessantly affect the human body and human well-being. The impact of weather conditions is manifested primarily by the formation of ‘bio-thermal environment’ This term encompasses both the atmospheric heat exchange with the human body and the organism physiological response (Błażejczyk et al, 2013). The atmospheric conditions of heat exchange are shaped by a combinate of meteorological variables: radiation, air temperature, air movement and air humidity. This is important in the case of conditions inducing strong thermal stress on human beings. In a cold stress condition, thermoregulatory mechanisms are directed to the reduction of heat loss from the body (Holmér, 1988) They result in narrowing of blood vessels and increase in blood pressure. Hazards associated with cold thermal environment does not disappear, e.g., 2009/2010 winter in Europe can be considered as an example of cold

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Conclusion