The influence and forecast of three industries and energy structure on regional carbon emission

Abstract

ABSTRACT Carbon emission reduction is an important part of regional low-carbon economic development. In this paper, gray correlation analysis, neural network model, Gaussian multi-mode fitting and other methods were used to analyze the relationship between total carbon emissions and regional economic development, industrial structure, and energy consumption in Henan Province. On this basis, the future development of carbon emissions is predicted. The calculation results showed that the correlation between the three industries and carbon emissions in Henan Province is more than .7, among which the secondary industry has the highest correlation (.77). In the secondary industry, the correlation coefficient between coal and carbon emissions is the highest .87, while the correlation coefficient between other energy sources is about .5. In the neural network prediction model, the correlation coefficient between the prediction curve and the actual total carbon emission curve is .989, and the prediction results have a good degree of fit. The carbon emission prediction curve was divided into two parts: a linear decline stage from 2018 to 2024, and a rapid decline stage after 2024.The results showed that more efforts should be made in industrial structure, energy consumption structure and environmental protection to achieve low-carbon development in Henan province.