Abstract
This article explores energy policy trade-offs faced by small states in cross-border electricity systems. We develop the concept of an impossible energy trinity which posits that small states in the energy transition cannot simultaneously achieve energy security, sustainability, and sovereignty. Based on a relational definition of energy smallness, we argue that small states have three options to cope with the intermittency of domestic electricity production from renewables and the resulting challenges for security of supply and grid stability. The dirty option resorts to generation from non-sustainable energy sources. The insecure option accepts system stability risks and/or higher electricity prices. The non-autonomous option cedes control over domestic energy rules to pursue an integration with the electricity grids and markets of larger neighbors. We empirically illustrate our novel concept using the case of Switzerland, which currently finds itself at the crossroads of the three options. We show that the country has to choose whether it wants to add gas-fired generation capacities, accept grid instabilities and higher electricity prices, or further integrate with the EU electricity market and rule set. We discuss possibilities for managing the impossible energy trinity as well as possible generalizations beyond the Swiss case. We conclude that considering public pressure for decarbonization and economic pressure to maintain a secure energy supply, the non-autonomous option will currently be the most likely policy option in many small states. This will reinforce the regional integration of electricity grids and the related power relationships.
Highlights
Global renewable electricity production is on the rise (IEA, 2021, pp. 26–28), countries differ in their ability to pursue a domestic energy transition
We ask what tradeoffs states face in the energy transition. Because of their limited endowments and dependence on other countries, many states are subject to an ‘impossible energy trinity’ (IET): energy security, sustainable energy, and energy sovereignty cannot be maximized simultaneously
Can countries escape the IET? The analysis has shown that while energy policy may change in response to political factors and contested energy geographies, it cannot maximize energy security, sustainability, and sovereignty simultaneously
Summary
Global renewable electricity production is on the rise (IEA, 2021, pp. 26–28), countries differ in their ability to pursue a domestic energy transition. Because of their limited endowments and dependence on other countries, many states are subject to an ‘impossible energy trinity’ (IET): energy security, sustainable energy, and energy sovereignty cannot be maximized simultaneously Instead, these states have to prioritize two of these objectives, leaving them with three policy choices: a ‘dirty option’ sacrificing sustainability, an ‘inse cure option’ compromising energy security, and a ‘non-autonomous option’ relinquishing energy sovereignty. Having moved from a dirty into an insecure option in the past, the country faces a tough choice today: Electricity cooperation with the neighboring European Union (EU) would increase Swiss energy security at the expense of sovereignty, whereas the preservation of sovereignty would weaken the sustain ability and/or security of electricity supplies We discuss that these findings are exemplary for the constraints that many countries face in the energy transition. We conclude that the IET puts pressure on the energy sovereignty of many states that are transitioning to renewables
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