Abstract
The article explores energy policy tradeoffs faced by states that expand renewable electricity production and are part of cross-border electricity systems. We develop the concept of an impossible energy trinity (IET), which posits that many states cannot simultaneously achieve energy security, sustainability, and sovereignty. We argue that these states have three options to cope with the challenge of intermittent electricity production from domestic renewables. The dirty option resorts to base or reserve electric generating capacity from non-sustainable sources. The insecure option accepts system stability risks and/or higher electricity prices. The non-autonomous option cedes control over domestic energy rules to pursue integration with neighboring electricity grids and markets. We empirically illustrate our novel concept using the case of Switzerland, which finds itself at the crossroads of the three options. The country has to choose whether to add conventional generation capacities, accept grid instabilities and higher electricity prices, or integrate with the EU electricity market and rules. We discuss generalizations to other countries and ways to manage the IET. We conclude that public pressure for decarbonization and economic pressure to maintain secure energy supply render the non-autonomous option most likely in many states. The operation and governance of transboundary grid structure thereby influence energy transitions on national and subnational scales.
Highlights
Global renewable electricity production is on the rise (IEA, 2021, pp. 26–28), countries differ in their ability to pursue a domestic energy transition
We ask what tradeoffs states face in the energy transition. Because of their limited endowments and dependence on other countries, many states are subject to an ‘impossible energy trinity’ (IET): energy security, sustainable energy, and energy sovereignty cannot be maximized simultaneously
Can countries escape the IET? The analysis has shown that while energy policy may change in response to political factors and contested energy geographies, it cannot maximize energy security, sustainability, and sovereignty simultaneously
Summary
Global renewable electricity production is on the rise (IEA, 2021, pp. 26–28), countries differ in their ability to pursue a domestic energy transition. Because of their limited endowments and dependence on other countries, many states are subject to an ‘impossible energy trinity’ (IET): energy security, sustainable energy, and energy sovereignty cannot be maximized simultaneously Instead, these states have to prioritize two of these objectives, leaving them with three policy choices: a ‘dirty option’ sacrificing sustainability, an ‘inse cure option’ compromising energy security, and a ‘non-autonomous option’ relinquishing energy sovereignty. Having moved from a dirty into an insecure option in the past, the country faces a tough choice today: Electricity cooperation with the neighboring European Union (EU) would increase Swiss energy security at the expense of sovereignty, whereas the preservation of sovereignty would weaken the sustain ability and/or security of electricity supplies We discuss that these findings are exemplary for the constraints that many countries face in the energy transition. We conclude that the IET puts pressure on the energy sovereignty of many states that are transitioning to renewables
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