The Implications of Future Demographic Change on Obesity and the Economic Cost Associated with Obesity in Georgia, 2000-2040

Abstract

In this paper we examine the implications of future demographic change, particularly the size, composition, and racial/ethnic diversification of population, on obese adult population in Georgia and the economic costs associated with these obese adults from 2000 to 2040. The number of obese adults is projected to increase from 1.5 million in 2000 to 4.3 million in 2040, along with an increase in total costs from $2.1 billion to $6.2 billion. Decomposition analysis suggests that the changes in obesity are predominantly driven by population growth, aging and diversification of population in Georgia. The demographic changes in Georgia are likely to resemble those of the nation, with minorities becoming the majority by 2042. The projected trends for Georgia may be applied to the nation, which depends on the assumptions made about population growth and changes in obesity. This analysis provides information about how obesity could develop through 2040 and what factors contribute to this development.