Abstract
The number of conflicts and deaths in Africa is rooted in the complex constructions and conjectures of Africa’s political economies, weak institutions, social identities, and cultural ecologies, as configured by specific local, national, regional, and historical experiences. Using real-time data of violent and nonviolent events in Africa, this paper analyzes the most significant indicators. The paper finds that Gross Domestic Product, corruption, state legitimacy, ethnic fractionalization, political effectiveness, and polity are significant in modeling the likelihood of political instability. The paper concludes that African countries require reconfiguration of the public and social institutions without ignoring the human factor that accelerate polarization and aggravation. Any marginalized groups should feel economically empowered and in control of their resources. The existential benefit of strong political institutions cannot be underrated as a way to ensure smooth power transition and curb of greed, which is a motivator.
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