THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER STRESS SITUATIONS IN THE YELLOW RIVER BASIN, CHINA

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis paper used a back‐propagation (BP) neural network to conduct statistical downscaling based on the data (two factors: precipitation and temperature) downscaled by the National Climate Centre of China from over 20 global circulation models (GCMs) and input these downscaled data into the Basin‐wide Holistic Integrated Water Assessment (BHIWA) model to analyse irrigation water demand as well as water stress situations in both water quantity and quality in the Yellow River Basin, China. The results of the changes in climate in scenarios A1B, A2 and B1/B2 showed that irrigation water demand will increase and the water situation will become more stressed in 2030 and 2050, though there is still some increase in precipitation in most of the sub‐basins in these scenarios. Meanwhile, with the same variation range of precipitation and ET0, ET0 will have a bigger impact on irrigation water demand and water stress situations than precipitation, This implies that ET0 is a more dominant factor influencing water demand and water stress situations than other meteorological parameters such as precipitation. In addition to this, groundwater quality is more vulnerable to climate change than surface water quality and better water management will result in a decrease in irrigation water demand. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.