Abstract
Senior governments in Canada are no longer subsidising new social housing. Instead, they rely on municipalities and encourage the development of new and innovative approaches to the housing problems of the poor. This study projects the magnitude of the rental stock additions that Ontario municipalities will have to produce over the next 25 years. The large 1991 census micro-data files are used to estimate the relevant parameters. The projections show the stock requirements under varying assumptions regarding rent-to-income ratios and size of dwelling unit. The results show that the projected rental population in Ontario in the year 2021 cannot be housed by current market supply processes even when households spend all of their after-tax income on rents for dwellings that are half the size of their current units. The magnitude of the shortfall that will have to be made up by municipalities is described. The characteristics of the people most affected are identified.
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