Abstract
Large-scale weather systems have the potential to modulate offshore wind energy production. The Northern European sea areas have recently seen a rapid increase in wind power capacity and thus there is a need to understand how different weather systems affect offshore production from the perspective of energy system integration. In this study, mean sea level pressure data from a new-generation reanalysis (ERA5) are utilised to classify synoptic systems into 30 different weather patterns using a self-organising map (SOM) approach. ERA5 wind speeds are then used in conjunction with a reference 8 MW wind turbine power curve to estimate wind power values at selected offshore sites. We assess how wind power output varies for different weather patterns, specifically, the impact on power production and power ramps.
Highlights
European countries have been developing offshore wind farm fleets in the North and Baltic sea areas
Spatial variation of wind power Firstly, we examine the spatial variation in wind power from the hypothetical 8 MW turbine at each site over the entire period 2003 – 2017, averaged over all weather patterns
Reducing weather systems to a limited number of weather patterns which can be associated with expected mean power output or extreme ramp magnitudes could have a number of practical applications
Summary
European countries have been developing offshore wind farm fleets in the North and Baltic sea areas. As the current share of electricity generated from offshore wind power is increasing over Europe [5, 6], it is important to quantify the influence of largescale weather patterns on wind power generation. This characterisation benefits the planning and utilisation of wind power production. With this in mind, we have classified weather patterns in order to explore how these patterns influence offshore wind power production in Northern European sea areas both in its magnitude and variability
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