The impact of war on insurer safety: a contingent claim model analysis

Abstract

Determining the optimal guaranteed rate of life insurance policies can effectively promote sustainable societies and disaster-resilient communities in times of war. Nevertheless, such strategic coverage remains uncommon in many countries. This article presents a capped-down-and-out call option model to assess life insurers’ safety during conflicts. Wars may lead to reduced life insurance businesses due to lower guaranteed rates set by insurers, yet they can also improve insurer safety within an imperfectly competitive insurance market. By increasing the surrender rate of the policy associated with reducing the optimal guarantee rate, the insurer’s security is improved, thereby contributing to the stability of the overall insurance. Our findings suggest setting guaranteed rates is critical to asset-liability matching management, especially in wartime, to maintain insurance stability.