The Impact of Urban Growth Pattern on Local Road Network: A System Dynamics Study

Abstract

The complex nature of urban growth in cities whose population is exponentially increasing requires a comprehensive understanding to create a precise and descriptive modelling. In order to identify the main factors that influence the behavior of such complex growth and consequently recognize the most applicable future projection to the growth in each urban category, a system dynamics model was developed in which all pertinent variables are incorporated. This model was proven to be capable of simulating the urban growth in Baquba city for some six decades from 1957 to 2017. The simulation results showed very high goodness of fit with the historical records with an R2 ranging between 0.987 and 0.997 proving the validity and applicability of the model. The interaction between various urban categories showed that the road network area was negatively influenced mainly by the rapid growth of residential and public areas. The future projections of this model to the target year of 2035 showed that the residential, public, commercial and industrial categories are increasing by; 55%, 84%, 40%, and 19% respectively. The road area has also increased by 19% in the same projection gaining more expansion than what it got in the last three decades prior to 2017.