Monitoring urban growth directions using geomatics techniques, a case study Zagazig city-Egypt

Abstract

The present paper explores the expansion and directions of urban growth in Zagazig city, a large city in the Nile Delta of Egypt. The paper assessments the spatial expansion and directions of the urban area for the years 1952, 1984, 2000, 2019. Besides, urban growth shapes were determined using the coefficient of the shape equation. Moreover, the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model was used to determine the impact of the spatial factors (roads network, waterways, and the no residential uses) on urban growth and its directions. Finally, a prediction of urban growth directions that could accommodate the population growth up to 2050 was identified using the rate of the growth equation. The year 2050 was chosen according to the urban development plan proposed by the government 2050 for the region. The urban growth expansion and directions revealed that the unsustainable trend of built-up expansion continued in this area. The built-up area increased 14,81 km2 during the period (1952–2019), resulting in a lack of original agricultural land, pare land. Otherwise, the western direction was also continued to occupy the urban distance directions in the entire period (1952–2019) with an increase of 32.3 percent in the city. The coefficient of the urban growth shape equation shows that the urban growth in the city took an unincorporated shape (stripe shape) in1952 recorded a 0,1 value. While the city was transformed to incorporate shape (circular and radiative shapes) during the years1984, 2000, and 2019 with recorded value 0,3. The OLS model results indicate that the most effective spatial factor on urban growth was the no-residential uses and roads network along the directions based on the Pearson coefficient recorded 0,8841, 0,8431 and the coefficient of determination R2 recorded 0,7816, 0,7108 respectively. The urban area directions of Zagazig city are expected to reach 34.8 percent, especially in the western direction by 2050. Furthermore, the urban distance directions are expected to rise 30.7 % also in the western direction. The study has confirmed that it is beneficial to identify current and future urban growth, urban growth shapes, and development that help regional planning authorities manage future urban growth and development following the area's carrying capacity.