The Impact of Uncertainty Factors on the Decision-Making Process of Logistics Management

Łukasz Marzantowicz

doi:10.3390/pr8050512

Abstract

The article is a contribution to the discussion on the possibilities of effective logistic decisions under the conditions of uncertainty. Variable and unpredictable factors, which create the conditions of uncertainty, not only directly affect logistic processes (positive or negative impact), but can also be a determinant of making decisions. Logistics management, because it is referred to in the context of decision-making, is currently defined by the quality of management decisions taken, including factors which often constitute only partially quantifiable sets. The main goal of the article is to show the strength of the dependence between the occurrence of uncertainty factors and the type of decision. On the basis of decision-making theory, the types of decisions were defined, and then a set of factors that are most important for a given type of decision was selected. The results of the analysis allowed the strength of the influence of uncertainty factors on making logistics decisions to be determined. On this basis, a catalog of key decisions was selected, including decision types, and also the effects of decisions taken under uncertainty were determined. The study and the results of the analysis should be treated rather as a voice in the ongoing discussion. Due to the unpredictability of some uncertainty factors, the research field in the discussed problem remains open.

Highlights

The unpredictable variability of the environment is an element of the strategy
The aim of the study was to determine the set of factors shaping the conditions of uncertainty and to determine the effects of their occurrence in the context of the determinants of decision-making for logistics management
Taking into account the assumption that unpredictable conditions occur due to unpredictable changes, it should be assumed that the variable factor will belong to the part of the uncertainty conditions, which partly allow estimating the effects of uncertainty

Summary

Introduction

The unpredictable variability of the environment is an element of the strategy. This variability determines the manager’s efficiency from the perspective of decision-making effectiveness. The question is how and when to make a decision in the field of logistic management in conditions of uncertainty. Due to the fact that the conditions of uncertainty are a set of variables, of which the source of origin is unknown and their effects are usually nonquantifiable, the answer to such a question is not straightforward. In the case of partially quantifiable variables, allowing to some extent to estimate the effects, it is necessary to speak about objectified conditions of uncertainty (as opposed to risk).

Objectives

Methods

Discussion

Conclusion