Abstract
ABSTRACT This article explores the long-term macroeconomic impact of the war in Ukraine. Exploiting a new stock measure of human capital combining the quality and quantity of education and adult skills, this article quantifies the long-term effect of the war on aggregate productivity through the human capital channel. Results suggest that losses in long-run aggregate productivity could be at about 7% if the war lasts two years. These adverse effects come from school closure and the resulting decline in student learning outcomes and losses in workers’ skills, which, without remedial policy action, could persist for decades.
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