The impact of the EU car CO2 regulation on the energy system and the role of electro-mobility to achieve transport decarbonisation

Abstract

We analyse the impact of the current and an alternative stricter EU CO2 car legislation on transport related CO2 emissions, on the uptake of electric vehicles (EV), on the reduction of oil consumption, and on total energy system costs beyond 2020. We apply a TIMES based energy system model for Europe. Results for 2030 show that a stricter target of 70g CO2/km for cars could reduce total transport CO2 emissions by 5% and oil dependence by more than 2% compared to the current legislation. The stricter regulatory CO2 car target is met by a deployment of more efficient internal combustion engine cars and higher shares of EV Total system costs increase by less than 1%. The analysis indicates that EV deployment and the decarbonisation of the power system including higher shares of variable renewables can be synergistic. Our sensitivity analysis shows that the deployment of EV would sharply increase between 2020 and 2030 at learning rates above 12.5%, reaching shares above 30% in 2030. Finally, the study highlights that, besides legislating cars, policies for other transport sectors and modes are needed to curb transport related CO2 emission growth by 2030.