Implications of electric vehicle promotion policy on the road transport and electricity sectors for Thailand

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze the implications of electric vehicle (EV) promotion policy on the Thai road transport and electricity sectors. For this purpose, this paper develops three scenarios representing different levels of EV penetration and assesses the scenario impacts with a view to identify policy implications and policy trade-offs of an increased EV deployment. A Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model is employed, in this study, to assess the scenario impacts for the period 2020–2037. The analyses showed that high EV deployment in the transport sector would provide noticeable benefits, for example, reducing energy demand in the transport sector, decreasing primary energy requirements, and mitigating emissions of CO2, NOx and PM2.5. An increase in electricity generation would be, however, required for supporting increased EVs. The analyses further revealed that the impacts of high EV adoption in the transport sector could be considered in terms of both emerging challenges and opportunities. In terms of emerging challenges, promotion of EV adoption would pose several challenges including electricity grid impacts, energy security issues, and impacts on related industries. In order to address these challenges, the development of long-term electricity planning taking into account various issues, for example, a mixture of generating capacity additions, infrastructure expansion, coordinated charging, and time-of-use tariff setting would be essentially needed. EVs deployment would also bring several opportunities including the implementation of Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) technology in smart grid and integration of renewable energy with V2X in smart grid. The success of these opportunities would, however, require policy supports from the Thai government and also the development of a consistent policy framework considering all related sectors. This framework is urgently required in order to provide effective strategies for developing sustainable future of electric mobility in Thailand.