The Impact of the East Asian Subtropical Jet and Polar Front Jet on the Frequency of Spring Persistent Rainfall over Southern China in 1997–2011

Abstract

Abstract Spring persistent rainfall (SPR) over southern China has great impact on its society and economics. A remarkable feature of the SPR is high frequency. However, SPR frequency obviously decreases over the period of 1997–2011. In this study, the possible causes have been investigated from the perspective of the individual and concurrent effects of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ) and East Asian polar front jet (EAPJ). A close relationship is detected between SPR frequency and EASJ intensity (but not EAPJ intensity). Associated with strong EASJ, abundant water vapor is transported to southern China by the southwesterly flow, which may trigger the SPR. Additionally, frequencies of both strong EASJ and weak EAPJ events are positively correlated with SPR frequency. Further investigation of the concurrent effect indicates a significant positive correlation between the frequencies of SPR and the strong EASJ–weak EAPJ configuration. Associated with this configuration, southwesterly flow strengthens in the lower troposphere, while northerly wind weakens in the upper troposphere. This provides a dynamic and moist condition, as enhanced ascending motion and intensified convergence of abundant water vapor over southern China, which favors the SPR. All analyses suggest that the EASJ may play a dominant role in the SPR occurrence and that the EAPJ may play a modulation role. Finally, a possible mechanism maintaining the strong EASJ–weak EAPJ configuration is proposed. Significant cooling over the northeastern Tibetan Plateau may induce a cyclone anomaly in the upper troposphere, which could result in an accelerating EASJ and a decelerating EAPJ.