Abstract
ObjectiveWe quantify the impact of COVID-19-related control measures on the spread of human influenza virus H1N1 and H3N2. MethodsWe analyzed case numbers to estimate the end of the 2019−2020 influenza season and compared it with the median of the previous 9 seasons. In addition, we used influenza molecular data to compare within-region and between-region genetic diversity and effective population size from 2019 to 2020. Finally, we analyzed personal behavior and policy stringency data for each region. ResultsThe 2019−2020 influenza season ended earlier than the median of the previous 9 seasons in all regions. For H1N1 and H3N2, there was an increase in between-region genetic diversity in most pairs of regions between 2019 and 2020. There was a decrease in within-region genetic diversity for 12 of 14 regions for H1N1 and 9 of 12 regions for H3N2. There was a decrease in effective population size for 10 of 13 regions for H1N1 and 3 of 7 regions for H3N2. ConclusionsWe found consistent evidence of a decrease in influenza incidence after the introduction of preventive measures due to COVID-19 emergence.
Highlights
The emergence and spread of COVID-19 in 2020 led to a number of large-scale public health measures to limit international travel, reduce gatherings, and increase mask-wearing. While these preventive measures were implemented to curtail the spread of COVID-19, they seem to have impacted the spread of other respiratory illnesses
We quantify the impact of the COVID-19 preventive measures on the spread of influenza in terms of incidence and viral molecular diversity (Bedford et al, 2015)
We defined TS and TE as the weeks during which the estimated number of cases reached 10% and 90% of the total case numbers in each influenza season, respectively
Summary
The emergence and spread of COVID-19 in 2020 led to a number of large-scale public health measures to limit international travel, reduce gatherings, and increase mask-wearing. There have been several reports on the decrease in case numbers during 2019-2020 influenza season in the northern hemisphere (Kuo et al, 2020), and the lack of a 2020 influenza season in the southern hemisphere (The Economist Newspaper, 2020). We quantify the impact of the COVID-19 preventive measures on the spread of influenza in terms of incidence and viral molecular diversity (Bedford et al, 2015).
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