Abstract
The objective of this paper is to assess the relationship between The Spring 2020 COVID-19 Lockdown and the levels of crime in New York City (NYC) and London. Our proposition, derived from the Routine Activity Theory (RAT), the ‘breaches’ theory and input from the 2020 research on lockdown and crime, hypothesised that lockdown measures would lead to reductions in crime. The crime categories selected for this study were: homicide, rape, robbery, violence against a person, burglary, theft and vehicle theft. T-test, F-test and the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression calculations were used to test the hypotheses. The four-month lockdown period in 2020 produced a 15% and 31% crime reduction in NYC and London, respectively. In the case of London, the overall results indicate that changes in routine human activities were indeed largely correlated with the reduction in crime. However, crime patterns in NYC in spring 2020 turned out to be inconsistent. A comparison of crime patterns under lockdown proved dissimilarity between NYC and London. The two-city comparison indicates that crime change related to lockdown may vary across crime types, places, and timespans or may have a detrimental effect on crime levels. The study may be considered suitable for replication and elaboration, particularly in view of the extended longevity of lockdown measures.
Highlights
The COVID-19 infection, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, was first observed and made public in the Chinese province of Wuhan in 2019
Following the assumptions drawn from the Routine Activity Theory (RAT) and Crime Pattern Theory (CPT) foundations, the ‘breaches’ proposition as well as the conclusions reported from the contemporaneous observation of the lockdown, this study focused on the changes to crime volume and statistical characteristics in the two, already listed, geographical locations, New York City and London
The findings are presented for both cities and the periods under scrutiny in the established order, that is, New York City followed by London and crime classification according to the rationale listed in the introduction section
Summary
The COVID-19 infection, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, was first observed and made public in the Chinese province of Wuhan in 2019. The phased lifting of the measures started in the UK on 13 May 2020 and continued in three stages, with the most pronounced ‘back to normal’ activities, such as encouraging those who could not work from home to return to the workplace, and the re-opening of sport, education and leisure facilities from 15 June 2020, staggered across the four nations [4]. Lockdown measures, such as stay-at-home orders, curfews, shutdowns and other limitations were introduced in the United States (US) after the WHO announcement. NYC preceded London in the lockdown introduction by one week; London preceded NYC in lockdown lifting by four weeks despite imposing the lockdown later
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