Abstract
Studies are showing evidence of the effect of changes in routine activities due to the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic on crime levels in many cities worldwide. This study evaluates the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on temporal and spatial patterns of crime in three major cities under very different national contexts. Each of the three countries and cities experienced different levels of pandemic restrictions and societal closure. The cities of New York (the United States), São Paulo (Brazil), and Stockholm (Sweden) were selected as cases. Temporal quantitative methods, spatial statistics techniques, and Geographical Information System (GIS) underlie the methodology used in this study. Findings show that there is a statistically significant break in the trend in crime levels after the stay-at-home orders were implemented in New York City, São Paulo, and Stockholm in the first months of 2020; the only exception was for murder. Such an impact varies by crime type and city context, but increases again after a few months, indicating how fast crime and criminals adapt. Residential burglary decreased, whereas nonresidential burglary increased overall. Changes in the levels and geography of vehicle thefts were observed, with an overall increase of significant cold spots but, in several cases, also solidification of existing crime concentrations in known crime attractors and in some deprived areas.
Highlights
Urban life has changed considerably since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020
As stated by Stickle and Felson (2020), these circumstances provide researchers with naturally occurring, quasi-randomized control experiment conditions that allow more advanced testing of criminological theories. To contribute to this knowledge base, we report here variations between crime levels and crime geography in 2019 and compare those variations with crime reported during the 2020 stay-at-home recommendations in three major cities—New York, São Paulo, and Stockholm—in different country contexts: the United States, Brazil, and Sweden
We examine patterns in police recorded crime from New York, São Paulo, and Stockholm to shed some light on the following research questions: Research Question 1: Has there been any significant change in crime levels since the establishment of stay-at-home orders? In particular, assuming that New York and São Paulo were under stricter stay-at-home orders than Stockholm, do crime trends differ in these cities? Do changes in crime levels differ by crime type? Research Question 2: Is the crime geography more affected in New York than in São Paulo and Stockholm? In particular, do crime clusters of vehicle thefts change geographically after stay-at-home orders? If so, how?
Summary
Urban life has changed considerably since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. As stated by Stickle and Felson (2020), these circumstances provide researchers with naturally occurring, quasi-randomized control experiment conditions that allow more advanced testing of criminological theories To contribute to this knowledge base, we report here variations between crime levels and crime geography in 2019 and compare those variations with crime reported during the 2020 stay-at-home recommendations in three major cities—New York, São Paulo, and Stockholm—in different country contexts: the United States, Brazil, and Sweden. We examine patterns in police recorded crime from New York, São Paulo, and Stockholm to shed some light on the following research questions: Research Question 1: Has there been any significant change in crime levels since the establishment of stay-at-home orders? Assuming that New York and São Paulo were under stricter stay-at-home orders than Stockholm, do crime trends differ in these cities? Research Question 2: Is the crime geography more affected in New York (with stricter stay-at-home orders) than in São Paulo and Stockholm? As a “control,” we compare Weeks 1 to 12 in years 2019 and 2020
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
