The impact of the Brexit referendum on UK’s value-added exports: A structural decomposition

Abstract

This article uses for the first time inter-country input–output data and a structural decomposition method to assess the impact of the 2016 Brexit referendum on the United Kingdom’s value-added exports. We find that final demand explains less than 30% of the 6.9-point decline in the UK’s value-added exports in 2016 (with a market share loss that offset the positive impact of global demand), whereas more than 70% was due to extraordinary changes in input sourcing decisions of the rest of the world. This means that the UK’s value-added exports were structurally affected by the weakening of the linkage effects of providing inputs to the rest of the world, especially to the EU. This article paves the way for further analyses of the structural effects of Brexit and other trade and industrial policies that alter the international allocation of inputs.