Abstract
Civil conflict in Syria, started in March 2011, led to a massive wave of forced immigration from Northern Syria to the Southeastern regions of Turkey, which later had serious economic/political repercussions on the MENA region and most of Europe. This paper exploits this natural experiment to estimate the impact of Syrian refugees on the labor market outcomes of natives in Turkey. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that immigration has considerably affected the employment outcomes of natives, while its impact on wage outcomes has been negligible. We document notable employment losses among informal workers as a consequence of refugee inflows. Formal employment increased slightly potentially due to increased social services in the region. The majority of those who lost their informal jobs have either left the labor force or remained unemployed. Formal employment and unemployment rates have increased, while labor force participation, informal employment, and job finding rates have declined among natives. Disadvantaged groups, i.e., women, younger workers, and less-educated workers, have been affected the worst. The prevalence of informal employment in the Turkish labor markets has amplified the negative impact of Syrian refugee inflows on natives’ labor market outcomes. Overall, the impact of Syrian refugee inflows on the Turkish labor markets has been limited, which suggests that the potential costs on the European and other affected labor markets might also be limited.
Highlights
The Syrian Civil War, which began in the Spring of 2011, has displaced millions of Syrians
The impact of Syrian refugee inflows on the Turkish labor markets has been limited, which suggests that the potential costs on the European and other affected labor markets might be limited
We argue that the prevalence of informal employment in Turkey, which is around 35% as of the end of 2014, has amplified the impact of immigration on natives’ outcomes
Summary
The Syrian Civil War, which began in the Spring of 2011, has displaced millions of Syrians. Based on the United Nations (UN) figures, around 5 million Syrian refugees have fled to the neighboring countries, which later had serious economic/political repercussions on the entire MENA region and most of Europe. Turkey alone has received more than 2.8 million Syrian refugees as of the end of 2016. From the beginning of 2012 to late 2013, the refugee influx was truly a regional labor supply shock.. The refugees did not have a Ceritoglu et al IZA Journal of Labor Policy (2017) 6:5 formal work permit; they could still affect the labor market outcomes of natives living in the area, since they supplied inexpensive informal unskilled labor. The main goal of this paper is to use this forced immigration as a natural experiment to analyze the effect of Syrian immigrants on the labor market outcomes of natives
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