Abstract
Civil war in Syria, which started in March 2011, has led to a massive wave of forced immigration from the Northern Syria to the Southeastern regions of Turkey. This paper exploits this natural experiment to estimate the impact of Syrian refugees on the labor market outcomes of natives in Turkey. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that immigration has considerably affected the employment outcomes of natives, while its impact on wage outcomes has been negligible. We document notable employment losses among informal workers as a consequence of refugee inflows. The majority of those who lost their informal jobs have either left the labor force or remained unemployed. Overall, unemployment rates have increased, while labor force participation, informal employment, and job finding rates have declined among natives. Disadvantaged groups – i.e., females, younger workers, and less-educated workers – have been affected the worst. The prevalence of informal employment in the Turkish labor markets has amplified the negative impact of Syrian refugee inflows on natives' labor market outcomes.
Highlights
The Syrian Civil War, which began in the Spring of 2011, has displaced millions of Syrians
We argue that the prevalence of informal employment in Turkey—which is around 35 percent as the end of 2014—has amplified the impact of immigration on natives’ outcomes
Using a difference-indifferences strategy, we investigate the displacement effect of the refugee inflow and examine if displaced natives stay in the labor force or exit from the market
Summary
The Syrian Civil War, which began in the Spring of 2011, has displaced millions of Syrians. Based on the United Nations (UN) figures, around 3.6 million Syrian refugees have fled to the neighboring countries. Turkey alone has received more than 1.6 million Syrian refugees as of the end of 2014. These refugees are spread around Southeastern Turkey and are located in the cities with refugee camps constructed and controlled by the Turkish government. The refugees do not have a formal work permit; they can still affect the labor market outcomes of natives living in the area, since they supply inexpensive informal unskilled labor. The main goal of this paper is to use this forced immigration as a natural experiment to analyze the effect of Syrian immigrants on the labor market outcomes of natives
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