The impact of social and economic development on the spread of infectious respiratory diseases, push or constrain? Empirical research from China based on machine learning methods

Abstract

It is unclear whether socioeconomic factors affect the incidence of respiratory infectious diseases in China. This article uses generalized linear model and generalized additive model to analyze the relationship between socioeconomic factors and infectious diseases. Studies have shown that both models can reflect the relationship between socioeconomic factors and infectious diseases, but generalized additive model has better goodness of fit. Nationwide, considering the impact of a single economic and social factor on the incidence of respiratory infectious diseases, the GDP Per capita, age structure of population, local fiscal budgetary receipts and proportion of higher education have a significant impact on the incidence rate of five diseases (p<0.01). Considering the combined effects of multiple economic and social factors on the incidence, two diseases of pulmonary tuberculosis and cerebrospinal meningitis are significantly affected by various economic and social factors, which are significantly greater than scarlet fever, measles and pertussis. We believe that the incidence of infectious diseases is related to socioeconomic factors, but the influence curves between socioeconomic factors and disease incidence are not in the same direction, and are often nonlinear. In addition, we found that the impact of socioeconomic factors on diseases varies greatly among different regions.